Monday, August 23, 2010

A feeble stab at statistical analysis

On Saturday night, Padres announcer Dick Enberg made an interesting comment about the NL Central. He said that young sluggers should want to play in the NL Central because they can hit a lot of home runs in that league, as compared to the NL West. (I think he was talking about the ball parks.) This comment got me to thinking and so I crunched some numbers. I looked at Park Factors but wanted to dig a little deeper. I don’t know if I can really draw any conclusions from these. See what you think.

Random findings (through Saturday’s game stats).

1.       The NL West has given up an average of 112.8 home runs per team this season. The NL Central has given up an average of 120.3 homers per team. (Arizona skews this stat, having given up a whopping 167 home runs so far this year. Pittsburg is second with 140 and Milwaukee follows with 136.) If Arizona and Pittsburg are eliminated, there is a 99.25 average for the West and a 116.4 average for the Central.
2.        The teams in the NL West have hit an average of 114.2 home runs this year, while NL Central teams have hit an average 115.5 home runs this year. (Milwaukee has hit the most with 146, followed by Arizona with 143 and Cincinnati with 137.)
3.       Of the home runs given up by each team, the following are percentages of those home runs given up by each club at home. San Diego 43%; San Francisco 42%; Colorado 51%; Los Angeles 54%; Arizona 63%; Cincinnati 58%; St. Louis 44%; Milwaukee 54%; Houston 49%; Chicago 54% and Pittsburgh 39%.
4.       The Padres are 26-21 in their division. They have given up a total of 74 home runs in these games for an average of 1.57 per game; Giants are 20-24; 37 home runs; .841 HRs per game; Rockies are 23-21; 31 home runs; .705 HRs per game; Dodgers are 29-16; 29 home runs; .644 HRs per game; and Diamondbacks are 14-30; 62 home runs; 1.41 HRs per game.
5.       The Reds are 34-21 in their division. They have given up a total of 48 home runs for an average of .872 home runs per game. Cardinals are 30-24; 43 home runs; .796 HRs per game; Brewers are 28-28; 70 home runs; 1.25 HRs per game; Astros are 33-24; 52 home runs; .912 HRs per game; Cubs are 22-36; 55 home runs; .948 HRs per game; Pirates are 22-36; 67 home runs; 1.15 HRs per game.
6.       Home runs per game allowed in all games played. Padres .844; Giants .830; Rockies .787; Dodgers .766; Diamondbacks 1.347; Reds 1.00; Cardinals .842; Brewers 1.106; Astros .836; Cubs .968; Pirates 1.138.

Ryan Braun hit his second home run in two days on Sunday, but it wasn’t enough, as the Brewers were unable to take their third in a row from the Padres. Sadly, it was a typical Manny Parra outing. Parra gave up seven runs in six innings on eight hits and four walks. The Padres didn’t hit any home runs.  The Padres hit two more home runs. 

[I completely screwed this up. No excuses. The Padres hit two home runs on Sunday, which was sort of the point Enberg was making. Thanks to the person who pointed this out to me.] 

Padres 7, Brewers 3
Game played 8-23-10


  1. Actually, the Padres did hit two home runs Sunday, solo shots in both the first and second inning.

  2. You are so right, KL Snow. The article would have made more sense if I had gotten that right. Thanks for pointing it out. I have corrected it. Hopefully you were the only one that read the blog today.

  3. No worries. Typos and slips happen. I've usually got 4-5 mistakes in the Mug before breakfast.

  4. Love the Mug. You all do a great job.